Ottawa at the Deadline and Beyond
By Peter Levi
You can’t take Ottawa’s deadline deal in isolation; it has to be judged inclusively with earlier moves. So, in this failed season, how can we rate Bryan Murray? He’s made three moves since firing Craig Hartsburg:
1) demoted Martin Gerber (3.75, UFA), eventually losing him on re-entry waivers the second time through to Toronto
Analysis: Gerber never should have started the year with the Sens, but at least Murray finally understood that. Losing him on waivers does very little in terms of the cap, but having him out of the system gives prospects Jeff Glass and Mitch O’Keefe more time to show their worth to the organisation.
2) traded San Jose’s 1st round pick and Dean McAmmond (0.875, UFA) for Chris Campoli (6.33, 2010 RFA) and Mike Comrie (4.0, UFA)
Analysis: there was no place for McAmmond with the Sens and Comrie was a money move for the Islanders (I do not think he is a good fit for Ottawa long term–his lack of foot speed is a real impediment), so the real deal is the pick for Campoli. I have not seen many Islanders games this season, but in the first few with the Sens the scouting report seems on target–a skilled puck-mover, Campoli is lost in the defensive zone and easily out-muscled. As for what is lost with the pick, the answer won’t be known for a few years, but (statistically) there’s about a 1-in-4 chance it will be a quality NHL player. If Campoli works out for Ottawa, who that player is doesn’t matter.
3) traded Antoine Vermette (2.762, 2010 UFA) for Pascal Leclaire (3.8, 2011 UFA) and a 2nd round pick
Analysis: does this sound familiar? A goaltender comes off a great season, his first as an NHL starter, and has a fat 3-year contract? I’m not saying Leclaire is Martin Gerber–they have very different histories–but it’s a huge risk to take paying a player coming off injury who has had only one great season. The move is a verdict both on Brian Elliott and Alex Auld. Moving Vermette is the first time Murray has touched the core of the team since he became GM; a talented player, Antoine never could make the adjustment to being a productive second line player. The Columbus pick will likely be between 44th-48th overall, high enough for a good prospect.
Overall I have to hope more moves are planned once the season finishes, although comments by Murray make this sound unlikely. While the organisation has attempted to address its needs (a puck-moving defenseman in Campoli, secondary scoring in Comrie, and goaltending in Leclaire), I don’t think it has done enough, and I believe they need to move another blueliner and another of their core forwards. This would clear cap space and make room on the roster. As currently constituted, here’s (roughly) Ottawa’s lineup (UFA/RFA’s in red, two-way’s in green, top prospects in purple):
Heatley (7.5 NTC)-Spezza (7.0 NTC)-Alfredsson (4.338 NTC)
Comrie (4.0 UFA)-Fisher (4.2 NTC)-Foligno (0.85)
Shannon (0.605 RFA)-Kelly (2.125)-Neil (1.1 UFA)
Donovan (0.625)-Winchester (0.55)-Ruutu (1.3)
Schubert (0.883)
Bass (0.513), Regin (0.607), Zubov (0.85), Z. Smith (0.583), Hennessy (0.5)
O’Brien (WHL; signed), Caporusso (NCAA), Condra (NCAA), Petersson (Swe U20), Greening (NCAA)
Kuba (3.7)-Campoli (0.633)
Phillips (3.5 NTC)-Volchenkov (2.5)
J. Smith (2.6)-Picard (0.8)
Lee (1.275)-Bell (0.5 UFA)
M. Karlsson (0.51 RFA)
E. Karlsson (Swe), Wiercioch (NCAA)
Leclaire (3.8)
Auld (1.0)
Elliott (0.942 RFA)
Ottawa has over 49 million committed to next year (if one includes Lee as the seventh defenseman and Bass as the extra forward), but this leaves 3 rosters spots to be filled in the forward group with perhaps 7 million to spend. Of their top unsigned prospects, it’s an open question if any of the forwards is ready to step in and play in the NHL. Erik Karlsson may be ready for the big time on defence (Murray has continually indicated he wants him signed for next year), but likely Patrick Wiercioch needs at least another season before being considered. I haven’t included any of the Russian players Ottawa hold the rights too, given all the difficulties they’ve had in bringing them over (Ilya Zubov being a prominent exception).
What disturbs me is the indication from the organisation that it only needs to make a few tweaks to the lineup–a lineup that has been awful for months, albeit playing well since the coaching change. Other than Christoph Schubert (whom Ottawa couldn’t give away at the deadline) there’s been no signal that any other player is on their way out in the summer. It reminds me of last summer when the Sens largely retained the team that had just failed them.
There are a number of players I would like to see moved: Schubert (I like Schubie, but he needs a change of scenary), Chris Phillips, Jason Smith, Ruutu, Chris Kelly, and Alex Auld. Let the two Karlsson’s (Mattias and Erik) compete with for the 6th blueline spot, while players like Cody Bass, Peter Regin, and Ilya Zubov get sprinkled into the lineup. The team would be faster, more mobile, and have considerably more cap room to sign a true top-six forward or possibly bid for a number one blueliner.
A final note: blueliner Craig Schira (WHL 71-16-43-59) has been signed to a three-year, entry level contract. Schira plays for the Vancouver Giants, and is second in defensive scoring behind the highly touted Jonathan Blum.
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