By Peter Levi
Let me preface my comments by saying I think there’s no chance that Dany Heatley will suit up for the Ottawa Senators this fall. One way or another Heatley will be gone from the nation’s capital. As such, he is not included in the following discussion.
Forwards (Cap hit: 23.008)
Jason Spezza (7.0) – Spezza will center the first line, with Heatley’s trade demand quashing all the rumours of the Sens trying to move him
Daniel Alfredsson (4.875) – with the “Big Three” now non-existent, he will spend the season riding shotgun with Spezza
Mike Fisher (4.2) – the best third line center in the league is playing on the second line and earning too much money; he played much better defensively under Clouston so, at least in that regard there should be an improvement over last year
Nick Foligno (0.85) – broke out enough under Clouston enough to make it all but certain he’ll play in the top six; he needs improvement defensively, but you can’t question his effort
Ryan Shannon (0.6) – earned his new, one-way contract under Clouston; able to play the second unit powerplay, he’ll be slotted in the third line
Chris Kelly (2.125) – Ottawa would like to trade Kelly, one of the few players who played even worse under Clouston, but they can find no takers due to his ridiculous contract. If he stays with the team he’ll play on the third line
Jarkko Ruutu (1.3) – doing what he does best, Ruutu will man the fourth line as one of the league’s premier agitators
Chris Neil (UFA) – a pending UFA, it’s difficult to say if he’ll return or not (much of the Sens posturing over Neil echoes what they said about Chris Kelly last year). One of the key parts of the decision may be the Sens ability to replace him, as there’s no one internally ready to fill his role
Jesse Winchester (0.55) – coming off a solid season, he’ll center the fourth line
Christoph Schubert (0.883) – the Sens couldn’t give Schubert away last year, but much of the reason they tried to move him had to do with Craig Hartsburg’s opinion of him; I think he’ll remain a spare part on the team, serving as a left winger more often than a defender
Shean Donovan (0.625) – very much a spare part throughout the season, Donovan doesn’t have a defined role on the team and I wonder if he’ll remain on it
Mike Comrie (UFA) – a disappointment from the Island, I would be shocked if he returns to Ottawa
Defensemen (Cap hit 15.008)
Philip Kuba (3.7) – anchoring the first pairing and the powerplay, the Sens have to hope he’ll play as well as he did last year
Anton Volchenkov (2.5) – he can’t stay healthy, but he’s fantastic when he’s in the lineup
Chris Phillips (3.5) – suffered through a horrific season, although he played better under Clouston and more specifically when firmly attached to Volchenkov
Brian Lee (1.275) – like all the other young players, he improved under Clouston, although he still has far to go to justify his selection as a first round pick. He’ll man the third pairing and see second unit powerplay time
Chris Campoli (0.633) – a savvy acquisition by the Sens, Campoli may not be Bobby Orr but he played well when he arrived and will see action on the first powerplay unit
Alexandre Picard (0.8) – Ottawa has failed to move Picard so far in the off-season, as the young defender failed to establish a role for himself; if he stays it will be on the bottom pairing and the second powerplay unit
Jason Smith (2.6) – Ottawa is desperately trying to move Smith, whose effectiveness has decreased with age; he’s a spare part if he stays
Brendan Bell (UFA) – Ottawa would like to keep Bell, but there are simply too many bodies on the roster to sign him; barring a move he won’t be back
Goalies (Cap hit 4.8)
Pascal Leclaire (3.8) – Coming off a poor start to the season ended by injury, Ottawa has to hope Leclaire returns to form
Brian Elliott (RFA) – Elliott will be resigned to serve as Leclaire’s backup
Alex Auld (1.0) – Ottawa has tried to move Auld, whose affordable salary should help facilitate that; if not, he may wind up tending the pipes in Binghamton
Signed Forward Prospects (9)
Peter Regin (0.6075) AHL 51-16-28-44 – the most NHL ready of the prospects, Regin is a defence-first player who can add offence. If Kelly is moved he will definitely make the roster, but has a good chance regardless
Ilya Zubov (0.85) AHL 58-14-38-52 – started the year on fire but his call-up under Hartsburg seems to have cooled him down considerably; more scoring upside than any other signed prospect, he still needs work in all areas
Cody Bass (0.513) – injured most of the year, many peg Bass as Neil’s replacement, but Cody has no offensive upside and doesn’t seem big or strong enough to fight like Neil. I think he’ll remain a fourth line call-up
Zach Smith (0.583) AHL 74-22-24-46 – less talented but more physical than Regin, he had a great first year as a pro, but another year of seasoning will help his development
Ryan Keller (?) SM-Liiga 54-21-34-55 – signed out of Finland, Keller has skill but given his AHL numbers (80-32) he’s likely suited to AHL duty
Jim O’Brien (0.845) WHL 63-27-35-62 – after two underwhelming years of junior O’Brien will look to define himself in Binghamton
Josh Hennessy (0.5) AHL 59-20-17-37 – had an off-year in Bingo, where he’ll spend his time this season; Ottawa’s strong drafts make it likely this is his last year in the organisation
Kaspars Daugavins (0.536) OHL 30-11-17-28 – a poor beginning in Bingo sent him back to junior; an enthusiastic player, Daugavins is on the bubble of continuing his career in North America
Shawn Weller (0.608) AHL 65-4-5-9 – showing little improvement over last year, Weller can only hope to catch on as an AHL role-player
RFA/UFA’s
Greg Mauldin (80-24-27-51) UFA – Ottawa would like to re-sign him, but Mauldin is looking for a true shot at an NHL roster, and that’s not going to happen here
Danny Bois (66-12-12-24) RFA – after five unproductive AHL seasons it is unlikely Danny Bois will be back
Jim Mckenzie (44-1-4-5) RFA – showing no improvement over last year, he will not be re-signed
Signed Defensive Prospects (5)
Erik Karlsson (?) SEL 45-5-5-10 – a successful first season in the SEL should see Karlsson playing across the pond—in Bingo however, not Ottawa. Besides the glut of NHL contracts, Karlsson needs time to adjust to the schedule and style of play here
Tomas Kudelka (0.533) AHL 76-7-16-23 – his struggles continued in his second year, seeing him spend time on the wing; he’ll need a lot of improvement to continue beyond his rookie contract
Matt Carkner (0.5) AHL 67-3-18-21 – provided a stabilizing, veteran presence; he’s an unlikely recall by the organisation
Craig Schira (0.545) WHL 71-16-43-59 – coming off a career year as an overage player in junior (riding shotgun with 1st rounder Jonathan Blum), it will be interesting to see if Schira’s production was an aberration or a coming out party; regardless, he’ll play in Bingo this year
Geoff Kinrade (?) NCAA 38-3-13-16 – had a cup of coffee in the AHL and NHL last year; Kinrade is a college pro who’ll help out in Bingo
RFA/UFA’s
Mattias Karlsson (73-9-42-51) RFA – an AHL all-star campaign in his first season with Bingo, Mattias reportedly signed with Timra in the SEL; I’m not sure why the Sens did not qualifying him
Derek Smith (75-7-17-24) RFA – signed out of college, I’m not sure Smith showed enough to return to the organisation
Geoff Waugh (27-0-2-2) RFA – a puzzling signing last year, the offensively challenged Waugh played himself off the roster and won’t be back next season
Goalies
RFA/UFA
Jeff Glass (41-17-19-3, 3.22, 0.903) RFA – given the lack of goaltending prospects it’s hard to imagine Glass not being resigned (despite his mediocre play)
Unsigned Prospects
Forwards
Erik Condra NCAA 40-13-25-38 – finished his senior year and is likely to be signed by Ottawa; odds are he’ll play in Binghamton
Louie Caporusso NCAA 41-24-25-49 – he has two years left in the NCAA and I doubt he’ll leave early
Colin Greening NCAA 36-15-16-31 – he has one year left in the NCAA and could leave early
Jakob Silfverberg SEL 16-3-1-4 – he will play in the SEL next season
Andre Petersson SEL 10-0-1-1 – he’ll likely play in the SEL next season (he’s signed with HV71 through 09-10)
Emil Sandin SEL 53-6-11-17 – Sandin will probably play in the SEL next season, although given his age it’s possible he could sign (if so, he’d play in Bingo); he’s signed with Brynas through 2011/12 but has an “out” clause to play in North America
Mike Hoffman QMJHL 62-52-42-94 – he has one year of junior eligibility left, but has strongly indicated he wants to turn pro
Corey Cowick OHL 68-34-26-60 – he has one year of junior eligibility left, and will likely be returned to the OHL
Derek Grant BCHL 57-24-39-63 – he’ll likely play his overage year of junior
Jeff Costello USHL 54-24-9-33 – begins his NCAA career next season
Brad Peltz USHL DNP – begins his NCAA career next season
Defensemen
Patrick Wiercioch NCAA 36-12-23-35 – has three years left in the NCAA, and while he may leave early, it won’t be this season
Jared Cowen WHL 48-7-14-21 – he’s slated to spend one more year in junior
Chris Wideman NCAA 39-0-26-26 – he has three more years in the NCAA
Eric Gryba NCAA 43-0-5-5 – has one more year left in the NCAA and I doubt he’ll turn pro early
Mark Borowiecki NCAA 33-1-1-2 – three more years left in the NCAA
Michael Sdao USHL 51-37-10 – will start his NCAA career next season
Ben Blood NCAA 31-0-1-1 – he has three years left in the NCAA
Goalies
Robin Lehner SEL-2 22 3.05 .903 – will play major junior next year
Potential Free Agent Signings
Ottawa did not get much value out of their free agent offerings last year. Jason Smith was a bust, Auld underperformed, and while Ruutu and Winchester played well their roles are limited. The team’s minor league signings fared even worse, with Brad Isbister refusing to honour his contract, Daugavins sent back to junior, and Geoff Waugh being loaned to another team.
This season, beyond those signings already made, the Sens will have to add at least one goalie to their system along with at two defensemen. At the NHL level two scorers are needed—one, I think, will be obtained via the Dany Heatley trade, but the other will have to be signed. Of the players available, Ottawa will have to pick from a group of second-tier players, many of whom have their best years behind them. Of the lot, I like Ruslan Fedotenko, Petr Sykora, and Mikael Sameulsson, but all three are likely to be expensive and two of them (Sykora and Sameulsson) are going to want more term than is healthy to give a veteran (it’s also likely at least two of them will be retained by their current organisation).
On the Binghamton side, of note is a pair of free agent goalies attending the Sens development camp this week. Normally FA attendees are there simply to fill out the numbers. However, the Sens may have designs for either Linden Rowat (left unsigned by LA) or Andrew Volkening (NCAA). Rowat is coming off a mediocre year in the WHL on a bad team (but a strong season before that), while Volkening is coming off strong play in the NCAA for Air Force Academy. Of course, these two might just be the equivalents of last year’s Juliano Pagliero and Kevin Desfosses, but with a shortage of netminders they were probably more seriously selected. I doubt Ottawa will dip their toes into the overseas free agent pool; Murray has shown no inclination to bring over European professionals, only North Americans playing in European leagues (such as Justin Mapletoft, Matt Kinch, Ryan Keller, etc). It’s unfortunate, as there are a few worth looking at (Erik Moe, Jussi Makkonen, and Markus Nordlund spring to mind).
A note on the Dany Heatley front: sources are saying only the Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, and San Jose Sharks are seriously pursuing the wingers. Undoubtedly the major stumbling block is that those teams are trying to move bad contracts back to the Sens. I suspect (in order) Dustin Penner, Fernando Pisani, Robert Nilsson; Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Michal Roszival, Aaron Voros, Pat Rissmiller; and Jonathan Cheechoo are names being bandied about. I’d guess Ottawa is asking for one of Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano; Ryan Callahan or Brandon Dubinsky ; and Milan Mihalik or Devon Setoguchi. Should July 1st pass, I suspect Ottawa will add Jason Smith or Chris Kelly to any deal they make.
It’s going to be an interest summer. Last year saw little change to the organisation, and I hope there’s a bit more done than simply tinkering at the edges.
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